They are around 3000 of them today, respected by the society for being blessed with a rare distinction of reaching the age of 100 years. By the year 2050 their number would swell to 111,000, thanks to the rapid transition from high to low mortality and fertility.

What is worrying social scientists, however, is the fact that the number of the young would shrink. A rapid and spectacular transition from high to relatively low mortality and fertility has fundamentally altered the age composition of India's population too. In particular, the numbers of those living beyond the age of 60 is rising rapidly. Despite this, India has barely even begun to think about its aged and to devise appropriate policies for them, says a new book.

United Nations projections indicate that the proportion of younger people in the age group of 15-24 years would fall in most places in the world, disturbing the intergenerational balance seen today. The changing balance between age groups would make the aged more of a burden on society and as resources get diverted from the young to the old, the world as a whole may experience malevolent intergenerational conflicts and tensions, the author says.

Quoting from the official figures the author says that the largest number of the aged in Asia is in China followed by India, Japan, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Turkey, Thailand, Philippines and Iran. He says that according to UN projections for 2050 the elderly would constitute 1,970 million of the world's population. Of these, 1,239 (63 per cent) would be in Asia.

The author says that older people increasingly run the risk of neglect, abuse and violence, both in times of war and peace. In times of violence, the elderly are often easy targets that they are usually the custodians of family wealth and personal wealth and are unable to resist or fight hooligans. In peace time too, older people who are frail or live alone may be particularly vulnerable to theft, assault and robbery. However, the most common form of violence against older people is 'elder abuse', committed by caregivers within or outside the family. The incidences of 'granny battering' are showing an overwhelming increase.

According to the International Network for the Prevention of Elder Abuse, elder abuse is a single or repeated act or lack of appropriate action occuring within any relationship where there is an expectation of trust, which causes harm or distress to an older person. It includes physical, sexual, psychological and financial abuse as well as neglect.

In India the number of people above the age of 60 was eight per cent of the total population. The number is expected to reach a staggering 21 per cent by the year 2050 while in China where in 1999 those above 60 constituted ten per cent of the population would form 30 per cent of the total population by 2050, the author says.